Research
Research
10 reports across 1 year
Operation 1027 significantly altered the military landscape as the TNLA seized multiple townships in Northern Shan State and the Arakan Army intensified offensives in Rakhine State. Simultaneously, the SAC faced a deepening economic crisis with severe nationwide fuel shortages and the depletion of foreign currency reserves.
November saw the rapid expansion of Operation 1027 from Northern Shan State to other regions, leading to the capture of several major towns and forcing the SAC into an emergency National Defense and Security Council meeting. The junta faces significant military pressure and thinning morale as revolutionary forces coordinate multiple operations across the country.
Conflict intensity surged in October with the launch of Operation 1027 in Northern Shan State, marking a major strategic shift as revolutionary forces captured multiple towns and targeted online scamming hubs. Simultaneously, internal military instability grew as the SAC sentenced top generals to prison while resistance groups in Karenni and Chin states began drafting transitional constitutions.
Military conflict intensified across multiple regions, particularly in Sagaing and Bago, while the Military Council faced significant internal instability with the removal of two high-ranking generals due to corruption. Diplomatically, the junta deepened its ties with Russia and China to bypass international isolation and financial sanctions.
Military activity surged in August 2023 with intensified TNLA offensives in Northern Shan State and strategic operations by Chin joint forces that targeted multiple junta positions. Domestic instability was further exacerbated by hyperinflation following the issuance of a new 20,000 kyat banknote and a large-scale prisoner amnesty aimed at easing international pressure.
July 2023 saw a surge in military engagements and severe human rights violations, particularly in the Sagaing and Magway regions, alongside significant diplomatic tension regarding Thailand's re-engagement with the junta and Timor-Leste's recognition of the NUG.
June 2023 saw a significant escalation in Karenni State where revolutionary forces captured an entire township (Mese), alongside increased Chinese diplomatic involvement and new US sanctions on state-owned banks. Sagaing remains the most volatile region, accounting for the highest counts of clashes, arson, and arrests.
May 2023 was marked by the devastating impact of Cyclone Mocha alongside intensified conflict in Sagaing and Mandalay, while China increased diplomatic engagement with both the SAC and former military leaders.
April 2023 saw record-breaking atrocities, notably the Pa Zi Gyi massacre, occurring alongside a significant surge in Track 1.5 diplomatic initiatives by neighboring countries that increasingly engaged with the military junta despite its decreasing territorial control.
March was characterized by a sharp escalation in military atrocities, including several massacres and a scorched-earth campaign in Sagaing, while the Military Council dissolved 40 political parties to tighten its grip on the illegitimate electoral process.